Interview: China's consumer shift offers growth path for Global South, says Rwandan economist

KIGALI, June 11 (Xinhua) -- China's rising consumer power and strategic pivot toward domestic demand are reshaping global trade and offering fresh opportunities for developing economies, a Rwandan economic analyst told Xinhua in a recent interview.

"China has over 1.4 billion people, and almost 500 million of them are middle-income earners," said Teddy Kaberuka, regional director of the Britain-based international consultancy firm M4Progress Limited.

China's consumer market has surged, with annual retail sales surpassing 6.5 trillion U.S. dollars. China is no longer just the factory of the world. It's also a global consumption engine, Kaberuka said.

Kaberuka noted that in 2024, China achieved 5 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Beijing's emphasis on household subsidies, fiscal support and credit access for small businesses has helped stabilize internal demand while shielding the economy from external shocks.

This shift makes China more resilient to trade tensions and global slowdowns, he said.

Although widely known as an export powerhouse, China has been the world's second-largest importer of goods for 16 consecutive years, the economist said.

"China doesn't just consume raw materials. It transforms them," he said. "China adds value before re-exporting. It's an integrated economic model."

Kaberuka believes this model holds valuable lessons for many developing nations, especially in Africa, he added.

"Instead of just exporting raw materials, we need to process them at home. That's how China moved up the value chain. The same can be done with our agricultural goods, like cocoa, coffee and cotton," he said.

He pointed to Nigeria's Dangote Refinery and Chinese-backed industrial zones in Ethiopia as examples of localized value addition that reduce import dependency and create jobs. Chinese special economic zones have helped boost textile and automotive production in Africa, he said.

China's market-opening policies, including zero-tariff access for least developed countries with diplomatic ties to Beijing, also give African exporters a competitive edge.

"It's diplomacy through economics," he said. "It gives African countries a cushion against rising global trade protectionism."

He cited Angola's oil exports and Ethiopia's cotton products as key beneficiaries of the policy.

Kaberuka also highlighted opportunities in China's green economy, including electric vehicles and renewable energy, as areas ripe for technology partnerships and joint ventures.

Digital platforms have amplified China's consumer transformation, and Africa can learn from this digital leap, he said. "Reaching millions of consumers in a matter of hours is something Africa can emulate through digital transformation."

For developing economies navigating an uncertain global environment, Kaberuka said China offers more than just being a trade partner -- it offers a roadmap.

"China has proven that you can build resilience through consumption, create jobs through value addition, and use trade policy to forge long-term alliances," Kaberuka said.

The future of global trade is being shaped by how countries respond to China's model, and how they choose to engage with it, he added. ■